Crowded vs Niche Thai Industry Codes: Survival Rates 2026
In short
Crowding costs survival. Codes with 3,000 or more companies keep 49.35 percent of their firms active as of 17 July 2026. Niche codes with 100 to 299 companies keep 56.45 percent. That is a gap of 7.10 percentage points. The very smallest codes, under 100 companies, sit at 53.99 percent, so the best survival lives in the small middle, not the extreme edge.
Do crowded industry codes survive better or worse?
Worse. The 142 codes with 3,000 or more companies hold 1,525,775 firms, and only 49.35 percent of them are active (DBD, 2026). Codes with 100 to 299 companies do better at 56.45 percent. Codes with 300 to 2,999 companies land in between at about 51.7 percent. The pattern is not a clean slope, though. The smallest codes, those under 100 companies, reach 53.99 percent, which is above every band with 300 or more firms. Crowding goes with weaker survival, but being tiny is not the safest place either.
Share of companies still active, by code size band
- Under 100 companies54
- 100 to 29956
- 300 to 99952
- 1,000 to 2,99952
- 3,000 or more49
Figures in percent active.
Pooled across all companies in each band. The 100 to 299 band leads and the 3,000 or more band trails.
Survival by number of companies in the 5-digit code
| Band | Codes | Companies | Active | Inactive | Survival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 100 companies | 483 | 14,056 | 7,589 | 6,467 | 53.99% |
| 100 to 299 | 211 | 38,131 | 21,526 | 16,605 | 56.45% |
| 300 to 999 | 238 | 129,843 | 67,132 | 62,711 | 51.7% |
| 1,000 to 2,999 | 154 | 278,904 | 144,210 | 134,694 | 51.71% |
| 3,000 or more | 142 | 1,525,775 | 752,916 | 772,859 | 49.35% |
Codes grouped by company count, as of 17 Jul 2026. Survival is active companies divided by active plus inactive.
Why the small codes need care
A simple average of code-level survival rates tells a different story for the smallest band. Averaged across its 483 codes, survival is 44.49 percent, far below the pooled 53.99 percent. The reason is size. A code with a dozen companies swings wildly when two or three go dormant, and most of these tiny codes hold few firms. Pooling weights each company equally and removes that noise, so it is the fairer read. Even so, the under-100 band holds only 14,056 companies, 0.7 percent of the total, so it says little about the wider economy.
Why this matters
A founder choosing a field often counts competitors and assumes more rivals means more risk. The registry gives a measured answer. Registering in a code that already holds thousands of firms goes with a roughly one in two chance of being active today, while a mid-sized niche gives about 56 in 100. The gap is real but modest, and it is not proof of cause. Crowded codes tend to be the easy-entry trades, where firms are cheap to open and cheap to abandon. Niches often need a licence, equipment or a specialist customer, which filters out casual entrants. Read the numbers as a warning about easy entry, not about competition itself.
Definitions
- Survival rate
- Active companies divided by active plus inactive companies. It reflects registry status today.
- TSIC
- Thailand Standard Industrial Classification. The 5-digit level is its most detailed tier.
- Pooled rate
- Total active companies in a band divided by total companies in the band, rather than an average of code rates.
- Dormant
- A registered company that is no longer operating, counted here as inactive.
Assumptions
- Band cut points of 100, 300, 1,000 and 3,000 were chosen by the author, and other cut points could shift the figures.
- Each company is counted under one code, so firms with several activities appear once.
- Older codes have had more time to accumulate inactive firms, which may lower survival in large established codes.
Methodology
Source is the Department of Business Development registry, aggregated by 5-digit TSIC code in the Max Data market tables, with rows computed on 17 July 2026. Each code was placed in a band by its total company count. Survival is active companies divided by active plus inactive, pooled within a band. The 1,986,709 companies covered are slightly fewer than the 1,989,709 registered, because 3,000 companies carry no code in the aggregate tables. Survival here means registry status, not years in business.
How we verified this
- Band company counts sum to 14,056 + 38,131 + 129,843 + 278,904 + 1,525,775 = 1,986,709, matching the companies with a size band.
- Band active counts sum to 993,373, matching the national active total, and 993,373 / 1,986,709 = 50.0 percent.
- Crowded band: 752,916 / 1,525,775 = 49.35 percent. Niche band: 21,526 / 38,131 = 56.45 percent. Gap 56.45 - 49.35 = 7.10 points.
- Under-100 band: 7,589 / 14,056 = 53.99 percent. Share of companies 14,056 / 1,986,709 = 0.7 percent.
- Crowded share of companies: 1,525,775 / 1,986,709 = 76.8 percent.
- Mid bands: 67,132 / 129,843 = 51.70 percent and 144,210 / 278,904 = 51.71 percent.
- Codes sum: 483 + 211 + 238 + 154 + 142 = 1,228.
References
- Department of Business Development. (2026). Registered juristic persons by TSIC code and operating status. Ministry of Commerce, Thailand. https://www.dbd.go.th/
Frequently asked questions
Is a crowded industry code riskier for a new company?
Registry survival is lower in the most crowded codes, 49.35 percent against 56.45 percent in codes with 100 to 299 companies. The data shows association, not cause.
Which band has the best survival?
Codes with 100 to 299 companies, at 56.45 percent active as of 17 July 2026.
Why not trust the average of small codes?
Codes under 100 companies swing sharply on a few firms. Their simple average is 44.49 percent, but pooled survival is 53.99 percent.
Cite this page
Chatpong L. (2026). Crowded vs Niche Thai Industry Codes: Survival Rates 2026. Max Data Insights. https://maxdatathailand.com/insights/do-crowded-thai-industry-codes-survive-better-or-worse-2026
Data & corrections
Download the data (CSV)Spot something off, or want to ask about the data? Email insights@maxsolutions.co.th. We publish corrections.
Written by
Chatpong L.Founder, Max Data, Max Solutions Co., Ltd.
Chatpong L. leads Max Data, a company-intelligence platform built on Thailand's official business registry. He writes about the structure of the Thai economy using primary registry data. His work covers company formation, industry concentration, and regional business activity.
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This page reports company-level and aggregate statistics only. It names no individuals and makes no claims about any person. Figures are provided for information and may be revised as source data updates.