Thai Company Formation Above and Below Trend, 2026 Update
In short
2021 was the biggest overshoot of Thailand's 2007 to 2025 company formation trend. It added 151,205 new companies against a trend value of about 114,499. That is 36,706 above the line. The years 2023, 2024 and 2025 then fell 14,956, 12,219 and 11,718 below it. 2022 landed almost exactly on trend. The data is as of 17 July 2026.
Which years beat the trend and which missed it?
Fit a straight line through Thailand's founding counts from 2007 to 2025 and the line climbs by about 6,459 new companies every year (DBD, 2026). Against that line, 2021 is the standout. It recorded 151,205 new companies when the trend expected about 114,499. That is a surplus of 36,706, or 32.1 percent. The next biggest beats were 2020 at 14,387 above and 2019 at 9,703 above. Then the pattern flips. 2022 came in at 119,923, only 1,035 below its trend value, which reads as a clean return to normal. 2023 is where real weakness shows, at 14,956 below. 2024 and 2025 stayed under the line by 12,219 and 11,718.
Gap between actual new companies and the fitted trend, by year
- 20076,155
- 20082,562
- 2009-1,619
- 2010-2,045
- 2011-4,519
- 2012-6,901
- 2013-2,556
- 2014-5,868
- 2015-7,244
- 2016-9,040
- 20171,056
- 20189,151
- 20199,703
- 202014,387
- 202136,706
- 2022-1,035
- 2023-14,956
- 2024-12,219
- 2025-11,718
Figures in new companies above or below trend.
Positive bars beat the trend. Negative bars missed it. The 2009 to 2016 stretch and the 2023 to 2025 stretch are the two long runs below the line.
Actual formations versus trend, 2007 to 2025
| Founding year | New companies | Trend value | Gap | Gap as % of trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,007 | 30,227 | 24,072 | +6,155 | +25.6% |
| 2,008 | 33,093 | 30,531 | +2,562 | +8.4% |
| 2,009 | 35,371 | 36,990 | -1,619 | -4.4% |
| 2,010 | 41,404 | 43,449 | -2,045 | -4.7% |
| 2,011 | 45,389 | 49,908 | -4,519 | -9.1% |
| 2,012 | 49,466 | 56,367 | -6,901 | -12.2% |
| 2,013 | 60,270 | 62,826 | -2,556 | -4.1% |
| 2,014 | 63,417 | 69,285 | -5,868 | -8.5% |
| 2,015 | 68,500 | 75,744 | -7,244 | -9.6% |
| 2,016 | 73,163 | 82,203 | -9,040 | -11.0% |
| 2,017 | 89,719 | 88,663 | +1,056 | +1.2% |
| 2,018 | 104,273 | 95,122 | +9,151 | +9.6% |
| 2,019 | 111,284 | 101,581 | +9,703 | +9.6% |
| 2,020 | 122,427 | 108,040 | +14,387 | +13.3% |
| 2,021 | 151,205 | 114,499 | +36,706 | +32.1% |
| 2,022 | 119,923 | 120,958 | -1,035 | -0.9% |
| 2,023 | 112,461 | 127,417 | -14,956 | -11.7% |
| 2,024 | 121,657 | 133,876 | -12,219 | -9.1% |
| 2,025 | 128,617 | 140,335 | -11,718 | -8.4% |
New companies by founding year, fitted linear trend and gap, from the DBD registry as of 17 Jul 2026.
Boom, bounce and a quiet shortfall
The early years need a caution. 2007 and 2008 sit above a straight line only because a line fitted across 19 years cannot bend to match the slow start. The mid-2010s are the first genuine soft patch. Every year from 2009 to 2016 sat below trend, and 2012 and 2016 were the weakest at about 12 percent and 11 percent under. The 2017 to 2021 run then beat the line five years in a row, and 2021 crowned it. The three years 2023 to 2025 sum to a shortfall of 38,893 new companies. That is more than the 36,706 surplus of 2021 alone. Put plainly, the later shortfall has already given back everything 2021 gained.
Why this matters
A year that beats trend is not proof of a new normal, and a year that misses it is not proof of collapse. 2022 shows how a surge can fade to the line within twelve months. 2023 to 2025 show something harder to dismiss, three straight years about 8 to 12 percent under. Anyone sizing the market for new Thai businesses, from accountants to software vendors to lenders, should plan on roughly 120,000 to 130,000 new companies a year rather than the 151,205 of 2021. A linear line is also only a yardstick. If the true path is flattening, then the 2025 gap of 11,718 may be the new normal, not a miss. The 2026 count of 110,866 is a partial year and is left out of the fit.
Definitions
- Trend line
- A straight line fitted to yearly counts by least squares, used as a yardstick for what a normal year looks like.
- Overshoot
- A year in which actual new companies exceed the trend value.
- Gap
- Actual new companies minus the trend value for the same year.
- R squared
- The share of year-to-year variation in the counts that the fitted line explains.
- Founding year
- The calendar year in the Gregorian system in which a company was registered.
Assumptions
- A straight line is assumed. A curved or slowing path would change which years look strong or weak.
- Counts include only companies that remain in the registry, so older cohorts may be understated.
- The 2026 count is a partial year and is excluded from the fit.
- The trend is descriptive and is not a forecast.
Methodology
Founding counts come from the Department of Business Development company registry, aggregated by founding year as of 17 July 2026. The trend is an ordinary least squares straight line fitted to annual new company counts for 2007 to 2025, which gives 24,072 plus 6,459 times years since 2007. Gaps are actual minus fitted value, rounded to whole companies. Counts reflect companies still present in the registry, so older cohorts may be understated by deregistrations. The partial year 2026 is excluded from the fit. The linear form is a modelling choice, not an official forecast.
How we verified this
- Slope recomputed by least squares on 19 annual counts: 6,459 per year, intercept 24,072, mean count 82,203.
- 2021 trend value 24,072 + 6,459 x 14 = 114,499. Gap 151,205 - 114,499 = 36,706. 36,706 / 114,499 = 32.1 percent.
- 2023 gap 112,461 - 127,417 = -14,956. 2024 gap 121,657 - 133,876 = -12,219. 2025 gap 128,617 - 140,335 = -11,718.
- Sum of 2023 to 2025 gaps: 14,956 + 12,219 + 11,718 = 38,893, which is 106 percent of the 36,706 surplus in 2021.
- 2022 gap 119,923 - 120,958 = -1,035, which is 0.9 percent below trend.
- R squared recomputed as 1 minus residual sum of squares over total sum of squares: 0.9035, shown as 90.4 percent after rounding to one decimal.
References
- Department of Business Development. (2026). Registered juristic persons by founding year [Data set]. Ministry of Commerce, Thailand. https://www.dbd.go.th/
Frequently asked questions
Which year had the most company formations relative to trend?
2021, with 151,205 new companies against a fitted trend value of about 114,499, a gap of 36,706.
Is the recent fall in new companies real weakness?
Partly. 2022 returned to trend, but 2023, 2024 and 2025 each sat 11,718 to 14,956 below the line.
How was the trend line calculated?
By an ordinary least squares straight line through annual founding counts for 2007 to 2025, which rises by about 6,459 companies a year.
Why is 2026 not included?
The 2026 count of 110,866 covers only part of the year, so it would understate the full annual figure.
Cite this page
Chatpong L. (2026). Thai Company Formation Above and Below Trend, 2026 Update. Max Data Insights. https://maxdatathailand.com/insights/thai-company-formation-years-above-and-below-the-2007-2025-trend-line-2026
Data & corrections
Download the data (CSV)Spot something off, or want to ask about the data? Email insights@maxsolutions.co.th. We publish corrections.
Written by
Chatpong L.Founder, Max Data, Max Solutions Co., Ltd.
Chatpong L. leads Max Data, a company-intelligence platform built on Thailand's official business registry. He writes about the structure of the Thai economy using primary registry data. His work covers company formation, industry concentration, and regional business activity.
Related insights
This page reports company-level and aggregate statistics only. It names no individuals and makes no claims about any person. Figures are provided for information and may be revised as source data updates.